Since June, the congestion of overseas container ships has deteriorated again. In North America, congestion continues to shift to the East and the bay area. The latest data show that the transportation capacity of the east coast of the United States has broken through historical highs; In Europe, congestion capacity continues to hover at a high level. The logic of port congestion deterioration in Europe and the United States is different, but it is expected that port pressure will continue to rise in the short term.
Domestic port congestion in the third quarter deserves attention, but the impact is relatively limited. Asia has ushered in a strong typhoon season. The impact of typhoons on port operations cannot be ignored. If the wharf is temporarily closed, it will aggravate the congestion in some sea areas. However, due to the efficiency of domestic container terminals, congestion can usually be alleviated quickly, and the impact cycle of typhoons usually does not exceed 2 weeks. Therefore, the impact degree and sustainability of domestic congestion are relatively limited. On the other hand, the domestic epidemic has been repeated recently. Although we have not seen the tightening of control policies, we do not rule out the possibility of further deterioration of the epidemic and upgrading of control. However, it is relatively optimistic that the probability of domestic epidemic recurrence from March to May is not high.
On the whole, the global container congestion is facing the risk of further deterioration, or the intensification will aggravate the contraction of the supply side, the supply and demand structure of containers is still tight, and there is support below the freight rate. However, due to the weakening of overseas demand expectations, the peak season demand range and duration may be less than last year, and it is difficult for freight rates to rise sharply. Freight rates remained strong and volatile in the short term. Recently, we mainly focus on the changes of domestic epidemic, labor negotiations in the United States, strikes and weather changes in Europe.
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