In 2022, the domestic yellow phosphorus market will operate in shock, and the spot price will be at an absolute high in the past five years. The average price from January to September will be 33682 yuan/ton, up 48.14% year on year (22736 yuan/ton); The lowest point in the year was 25000 yuan/ton in early August, and the highest point was 39000 yuan/ton in the middle and late May.
From January to September, the opening price of Yunnan yellow phosphorus market was 35000 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 36000 yuan/ton. The opening and closing prices rose by 1000 yuan/ton, or 2.86%. The yellow phosphorus price drive is constantly changing between the cost logic and the supply and demand logic. In the first half of the year, the domestic demand market showed strong performance, and the acceptance of high priced raw materials was high. Some glyphosate and other enterprises had large profit margins and high starting load. The demand for the yellow phosphorus market was stable. The price of raw phosphate rock continued to rise, and the cost continued to support. Because of the large fluctuation of the yellow phosphorus price, enterprises mainly purchased a large number of orders, making the yellow phosphorus market in a tight state of supply, Prices continued to rise.
By June, the starting load of downstream products had significantly increased, and the competition for low prices in the market was fierce. Downstream enterprises turned to lower the price of raw materials in order to reduce costs, and the price of yellow phosphorus market began to decline continuously. At present, the yellow phosphorus market has sufficient supply, and downstream demand is weak. After the price continues to decline due to excess supply, it may maintain a low consolidation situation, and it is difficult to see a significant increase in the short term.
From January to September, the price of yellow phosphorus market fluctuated frequently, experienced eight falls and eight rises, and the market price was adjusted frequently. The main reasons for the yellow phosphorus market trend from January to September are: frequent game between upstream and downstream parties caused by imbalance between supply and demand, rising raw material prices, and policy changes.
In 2022, the total annual output of yellow phosphorus in China is expected to be 850000 tons, an increase of 7.59% month on month, and the average monthly output will be around 70800 tons. From January to September, China's yellow phosphorus output was 635300 tons. From the perspective of output changes, the peak of output from January to September appeared in June. Yunnan and Sichuan entered the wet season, and yellow phosphorus enterprises started to work significantly, with high output. After June, the monthly output of the industry declined to a certain extent, especially in August. The main reason is that the market demand was weak in August, the price of yellow phosphorus market continued to decline, and the enterprise reduced production and guaranteed price, resulting in a significant decline in output. From January to September, the profit of the yellow phosphorus industry basically remained at a high level. Only from July to August, the price of the yellow phosphorus market dropped sharply, and the profit was low. Affected by the large profit margin, the domestic yellow phosphorus plant started to operate at a high level, and the industry's operating load hovered around 60%, resulting in a significant increase in the overall output.
It is expected that the price of yellow phosphorus market will continue to fluctuate in the fourth quarter. Yellow phosphorus enterprises will stay on the sidelines in November, but they may still decline due to weak demand. It is expected that the power rationing in Yunnan will intensify in the future. In addition, the price of electricity will rise in the dry season, which will support the yellow phosphorus market in terms of cost. In terms of demand, the market for downstream phosphoric acid, phosphorus trichloride and glyphosate has remained weak, and there is no strong positive support in terms of demand.
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