Glyphosate is the most widely used pesticide variety in the world, and also the one with the largest output and the largest export among all pesticide varieties produced in China. The importance of glyphosate to the pesticide industry is self-evident. Every move of relevant enterprises, as well as its output and price trend, has also been concerned by domestic and foreign manufacturers.
According to relevant data, the annual output of glyphosate raw powder in China has basically remained around 580,000 tons in recent years, about 10% of which is used domestically, and most of which is exported to the international market. At present, the global glyphosate production capacity is about 1.2 million tons, including about 380000 tons for Bayer. There are 10 major manufacturers in China, with a total capacity of about 800000 tons, accounting for about 2/3 of the world.
Since 2021, affected by the complex international political and economic situations such as the turbulence of the international geopolitical pattern, repeated epidemics and trade disputes, the energy crisis, food crisis and industrial chain crisis have worsened regionally, the uncertainty of economic growth has increased significantly, the price of raw materials has risen, the price of grain has risen, and the growing area of genetically modified crops has allowed glyphosate, a herbicide with a depressed market for many years, to usher in a long lost benefit in 2021, According to statistics, the price of glyphosate has soared from more than 20000 yuan per ton in January 2021 to 83000 yuan per ton in December, up 187%.
However, since this year, due to the low prices of some raw materials, the mentality of merchants to buy up rather than buy down, as well as the game between middle traders, the price of glyphosate technical drugs has been under pressure, falling from 79000 yuan/ton in January to 52000 yuan/ton in the middle of November, a decline of 34%. According to the analysis of the insiders, the current trend of glyphosate continued to weaken, mainly due to the increase of glyphosate phased inventory, the weakening of price resistance, the lack of confidence in the downstream, and the international market buyers' holding currency.
The ups and downs of glyphosate prices in the past two years like a roller coaster have also made many people breathtaking, but neither too high nor too low prices are conducive to the safe, green and sustainable development of the glyphosate industry. Since 2021, due to the strong demand for glyphosate market, high profit margins and better market expectations, almost all glyphosate production enterprises have been producing at full capacity since last year. Although relevant enterprises have made huge profits, they may also bring hidden dangers to safety production.
In order to implement the national policy of "double control" and "double carbon", orderly develop and utilize the limited phosphate rock resources, and realize the safe, green and sustainable development of the glyphosate industry, on the premise of ensuring the supply, the relevant production enterprises have also decided to reduce the output of glyphosate by means of rotating inspection and repair of production devices in the middle of November. The monthly production limit is about 1/3 of the total output, and it is expected to reduce the output of glyphosate by about 20000 tons per month, Glyphosate production enterprises aim to achieve safe and green development of the industry, and take measures to limit production through self-discipline and collective action.
In recent years, the global market size of glyphosate is about 5.6 billion US dollars. For a large single product with high production concentration and cyclical fluctuations, due to the rigid global demand for food, the continuous expansion of the planting area of transgenic crops, and the better cost performance compared with other herbicides, it is believed that the future 5-10 years will still show a good development prospect.
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