With the recovery of logistics, the technical material market is gradually recovering, and most products continue the pre holiday market trend, with overall market demand maintaining a weak trend. In the future, as the US interest rate reduction cycle approaches, major economies such as Europe and Australia are expected to follow suit and start lowering interest rates simultaneously. According to the World Bank's forecast, with the general recovery of global manufacturing PMI, the global trade volume growth rate is expected to reach 2.8% (previously 1.7%) in 2024 and 3.0% in 2025. China is an important global exporter and is optimistic about the role of the global manufacturing recovery in driving China's export growth.
The limited increase in market shipments of herbicides after the holiday has led to on-demand procurement for formulation processing. The supply of bulk raw materials and intermediates is abundant, and the industry is plagued by a bearish atmosphere. Business owners are strict in their approach to the market, and domestic and foreign trade operate conservatively. In terms of supply, macro stability and strong capacity autonomy enable enterprises to maintain high load operation of their equipment. In terms of demand, domestic rigid consumption is slow, foreign trade inquiries are pressing prices, and new orders are gradually following up.
Brazil, the United States, and Argentina are the top three global consumers of glyphosate, accounting for 45% of the total global consumption. In the first half of 2023, Brazil, the United States, and Argentina, the three major consumer countries of glyphosate, were still in the stage of destocking overall. High inventory caused a delay in replenishment demand, and the terminal market price of glyphosate showed a downward trend of stairs. In the fourth quarter, the export volume of Brazil, the United States, and Argentina gradually increased, boosting glyphosate prices. At present, Brazil, the United States, and Argentina are gradually ending their destocking and are expected to gradually enter the replenishment period. Overseas demand for glyphosate is expected to rebound.
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